to europe, and then europe doesn't need russia there, and then it becomes clear that this mess in syria was extremely beneficial to russia, so that these gas pipelines wouldn't be completed, and thus russia will still have some illusion of the possibility of returning to the european gas market, what do you say, mr. mikhail, well, it will have an illusion and lives the illusion that... to return, judging by how the kremlin is trying to return its gas to europe under the guise of some azerbaijani gas, but returning to the topic of these two pipes for iranian there and qatari or in a broader context middle eastern gas to europe, then in order to understand that this will not happen now, you need to... go

back 15-20 years and look at the situation that existed then, because these projects, really large-scale projects, or rather ideas, i would say, they took place somewhere in the middle of the zero, in the second half of the zero, because then the intensive development of this super-giant pars field began. from both sides of it, from the qatari, first of all, and also from iran, the total reserves there are 28 trillion cubic meters, this is a super-giant field, and then indeed, if we remember, europe was intensively increasing gas consumption at that time, this increase was due to imports from russia, and in 2006 and 2009 russia caused

gas crises for us, ukraine and... europe, and then the question arose, what exactly, and what should be done to create some diversification route or routes, and then even the european commission created a project, even the appointed european commissioner van artzen was authorized the southern gas corridor or energy corridor, as it was called, primarily meant the gas of central asia, where the second global gas field after pars is located, south yolotan, with reserves of about 21 cubic meters, and the route from central asia, from turkmenistan through the caspian sea, the south caucasus, turkey and further to europe. and from the middle east, in fact, there was competition between two pipes from one pars gas field. and in principle, if there was a certain excitement then, there was even talk of egyptian gas, which is also.

it will pass through jordan, syria, and also turkey and then to europe, and turkey, accordingly, if it were to become such a gas transit, a gas hub for europe, but of course, when we talk about why russia intervened in the situation in syria, then undoubtedly, well, it was not the number one motive, but not the number two either, figuratively speaking. because it was precisely unclear there what would happen to these projects, whether iranian gas would go there, which had been breaking through to the european market through the soviet union for 30 years or more. the times of leonid brezhnev and shah muhammad raza are arrogant, will qatari gas, for example, come, if it were both bad for russia, because these are competing gas flows. especially

from countries that have gas reserves, not less than russia, moreover, it is much easier and cheaper to extract gas there than somewhere else, well, the third gas field in terms of reserves is urangoy, so accordingly urangoy to mary uzhgorod, gas pipeline, then goes yambur, yamburg is the western border, so to speak, that's why it was such a challenge to competitors, and accordingly syria is at the crossroads of these flows and... accordingly, what the kremlin is doing must be chaoticized, and accordingly, the intervention, it was going on under such a make-up, disguise in order to maintain stability in the country, in syria, well, to save assad and so on, but deep down it was an option, and russian military leaders, in particular general colonel ivashov, talked about it, that it was important in order to prevent

the emergence of competing projects, well, that's actually what happened, and why now, you say, it won't happen quickly now, well, that's all, the government ordered, and new ones came, they seem to be smiling at everyone... they say, we love europe, and the jews, and everyone, we are so beautiful, but let's build, what's stopping us, nothing will happen, nothing will happen, for another reason, i didn't make this excursion into the past in vain, that then the european union needed gas and needed diversification of supplies, now the european union, after 2019, has declared a decarbonization policy. it is, in fact, following the course of refusing to buy back fuels, including natural gas, and we see, that in principle, now gas consumption in the european union is decreasing, and accordingly, if, and we see that in principle it is quite painless, well, if you don't take into account

the jumps in gas prices, we did without supplies of russian gas, which in principle formed the main gas balance of the european union. for a long period, starting from the last century, therefore, especially, now one way or another all these projects would have to pass through the territory of turkey, in europe they are very closely watching what erdogan is there, let's say, years ago and erdogan now are two different erdogans, and they don't really want to change, so to speak, gas supplies from putin's russia to gas supplies via transit through erdogan's turkey. mr. mikhail, but look, if there is, there is a buyout fuel and there is decarbonization, then this means that the price of gas will fall, if

europe doesn't need it, here we discovered a huge field, then this, well, where to put it, okay, china will take a little, but not me. i'll tell you that kydai also wants to very quickly, at least to move towards decarbonization, they are making great, great efforts, and then the question arises that there is a lot of gas, there are few consumers, well, this situation is basically emerging, because this gas is now, if, figuratively speaking, excessive, moreover, if we take qatar, then in principle it is... just when in the zero years somewhere else they were studying the option there, that maybe there could be a pipe, but they were a pioneer, and the priority for them is the development of liquefaction and export of liquefied gas, and they

are persistently on this path and they don't turn to the pipe, they are no longer interested in it, and accordingly, liquefied gas , precisely as a result of those two gas crises created by russia, has become increasingly interested in the global, global gas market, and it has just begun to develop dynamically, the lng market, starting from the 10s, accordingly, qatar has not only been and remains essentially in the top three, global leaders in lng production, but moreover, in a year, practically in the 26th year, it will increase its capacities for... liquefaction and export, and will again become number one, will again overtake the united states and australia, which in fact periodically became world leaders, one after the other, slightly pushing qatar aside, and thus, if

gas is needed by the global economy, the economy of the european union in particular, but it comes in a different form, when it has its own advantage. because gas through pipes can only come to where there are pipes, but liquefied gas can come much more flexibly, it is enough to build a terminal for its reception, and if it were, to operate more flexibly, i want to invite you on an excursion to the cooperative republic of goiâna, there is also a fantastic mine there, only there is something huge, extraordinary with oil and... there is a boom there and they are already saying that they constantly had negative migration, everyone was fleeing, now everyone has stopped and started returning home, it is a small country, 800 thousand people live there, but there they are just like, how can it be as if they won

all the money in the world in a casino, and this will again put pressure on the oil market now, because as far as i remember, there is already an american mobile phone there. and when i get there, there will be enough for everyone, and then there will be a lot of oil and there will be a lot of gasoline, and then gasoline and oil will become cheaper again, am i right? well, in principle, yes, but you need to understand that there is an opec cartel, or there is an opec plus format, which is trying to regulate the oil market, by quoting it, and so on, not allowing any , or too high prices or falling prices and so on, so the appearance of additional volumes of oil, let's say, is in principle a plus, especially since when we talk about oil, it is guyana, so this is high... quality light oil unlike, say, neighboring venezuela, which

has the largest gigantic oil reserves in the world, but venezuelan oil is not just heavy, it is super heavy, so nobody processes it in its pure form, but you need just such a light oil, oil to mix all this and get the appropriate technological mixture for processing, why chavez. time well time chavez if he hadn't articulated it so strongly, already in the time of maduro, we remember this story as an attempt to annex guyana as a whole, just aiming at these light oil deposits, which can be added to venezuelan extra-heavy oil, and then a completely different quality of venezuelan oil would appear, some kind of export mix would appear, and then venezuela would become a powerful competitor to saudi arabia and the united states. well, and russia too, well, it didn't happen like that, and i think it won't happen, but one way or another

, the situation here is that the opec cartel, it is already in the format of opec plus, it has become a serious player, and here it is necessary then, or, for developed countries to put a cartel of consumers as opposed to this cartel of producers, exporters, or should they share, separately, as it was before, the united states, let's say, the states, saudi arabia and, let's say, guyana, that they regulate the market, because in this global configuration, the united states, russia, saudi arabia, when two play a joint game, the third one loses, and so we see from the situation with opec plus, when the russians and the saudis played together, and inertially this still continues, then we have high. on oil, the united states, well especially in the context what

president-elect trump said in his election campaign, they want to move to a different algorithm for the global oil market, and binsalman also talked about this a few months ago, so in the near future we will see a change, a possible change in configuration in the global oil market and so to speak... we will see where this vector will go, well, it should go in a downward direction, this does not mean that there will be, thank you, there will be a second series, because it is very interesting, i would listen to it and listen, i would not time it, i didn't hear it in my right ear, i have to finish, because in the next program, i thank mykhailo honchar, an expert on energy security relations, president of the strategy 21 global studies center, i really hope to meet him. many times, because he really understands both security and energy,

and this is very often the same thing. all the best, ladies and gentlemen, i wish everyone all sorts of victories, big and small, mykola veresen was with you, bye-bye, there is a feeling that these people are simply not needed in ukraine, especially. to get to the occupied territory of our country, you have to go through interrogations, filtering, the lights are turned off for three, 6, 8 hours a day, the cash register has fallen about five times, more than 10% of the country. we have internally displaced persons, the authorities continue to pretend that they do not exist. the most important thing

is people, it's not land, it's not something else there, it's people, and we, people are getting stuck, the authorities are giving up, five european countries intend to stop helping syrian refugees, which countries are these, it's germany, the czech republic, denmark and sweden. in austria , the ministry of the interior has generally... ordered to prepare for the deportation of syrians, and this lightning-fast reaction, when the assad regime has just fallen and the situation in syria still remains uncertain, is a very important signal for us ukrainians and for our authorities. are you planning to return home today? of course, those ukrainians who have found work and integrated into foreign societies will be able to stay there. but many of our refugees are not employed, they live only on social assistance. once the european union abolishes the privileged status of temporary collective protection, many ukrainians will lose the legal basis for permanent residence

in the european union and will be able to stay there only for 180 days a year. according to the visa regime, this is exactly the order established. how many of them will return home as soon as security allows and the missile attacks stop? there is no exact answer, but sociological research shows that since the beginning of the war , the share of those wishing to return home has always remained above 50%. we see footage from the turkish-syrian border, where people are returning en masse to their destroyed homes, despite the fact that the future of their country and their personal lives is certain. and here the question arises, do the ukrainian authorities have a plan in case of a freeze or end of the war, when the security situation changes dramatically and millions of ukrainians want to return home. unfortunately, for now we have to talk about something else: the demographic policy of the current government does not solve the problems, but only deepens the crisis. the consequences of this policy are so serious that even those who previously remained in ukraine,

and what's worse, some choose not only safe eu countries, but also return to the occupation. back in... the authorities canceled social payments for 2/3 of internally displaced persons. combined with a whole complex of other unresolved problems, this led to the fact that people who consciously remained in ukraine in 2012 began to return to the occupied territories. why did this happen? instead of analyzing the reasons and correcting the situation, the authorities first simply denied the existence of the problem, and then began to call people traitors, although the scale of the problem was already impossible. this caused a scandal even within the presidential party. parliamentarians from the servant of the people, who remain closer to the people, their real problems, dared to make an unprecedented criticism of the government's demographic policy. idps are becoming fewer not because they find a new home in the controlled territory. they simply return to the occupation, make their difficult

choice, finding themselves faced with the dilemma of living under occupation or in poverty without state support. they return to the tot. in fact the state policy on the issue of supporting idps has completely failed and is covered up like a fig leaf with penny payments. about 150 thousand internally displaced persons have returned to the temporarily occupied territories, in particular up to 70 thousand to the temporarily occupied mariupol. the statement about 150,000 internally displaced persons excited the officials who were dealing with their problems. and caused a public scandal in the presidential party. you are lying when you say about thousands of idps returning to tot. there are no confirmed statistics yes it can't be, this is just hype for the sake of loud headlines. with your statements you support the hostile narrative that it is supposedly better under occupation. after

such a statement, the parliamentarian retracted his words. there is no such data, it was my unfounded yes. there are only isolated cases when ukrainians are forced to travel to the occupied territories for various reasons, but it is not about hundreds or even tens of thousands. i expressed myself incorrectly, so i want to refute my words. well, in this case, party discipline and hierarchy won. formally, the conflict is over, but the problems remain unresolved. independent experts insist that ukrainians are really returning to the occupied territories. no one will give exact figures, we do not have crossing points across the front line to record such movements, but indirect data indicates this and allows us to assess the level of threats facing ukraine, so according to our calculations, i'm saying frankly, yes, in the territory for this year, i take october-october there, october-november there, that's how the initially functioning shermetov

about 100 thousand ukrainians entered the occupied territory, there may be an error in our calculations, but this... the error will be 10-20%, that is, even if you don't like it, at least 80 thousand left for the occupied territory. if during the ato ukrainians could cross the demarcation line in the donetsk and luhansk regions through officially designated checkpoints, now such a way exists only through one point - moscow's sheremetyevo airport, that is, they must first leave for europe, and from there through third countries, because there is no direct air connection between the eu and the russian federation, fly to moscow. shermetov, there is a well-equipped filtration point there, facebook users work there, there are others, there are quite a few of them there, and in order to get to the occupied territory of our country, you need to go through interrogations there,

filtration, you have a full check of your social networks, just a full check, and even those people who delete something there, these dogs restore it somehow, but why do ukrainians decide to return to the occupation? why don't they find themselves in new circumstances? there are many reasons: lack of housing, canceled payments, but the main problem is that the authorities simply don't want to notice these people. how exactly does this look in practice, in our next story. we tried to make a place here, cozy, homely, that is, objects that would resemble a home. and so many people come in and say, they see this buffet, and he says: yes. we have one like that at our grandmother's, this is a buffet from the 50s of the last century. journalist gennady stambula came to kyiv from mariupol. there he dreamed of opening

his own coffee shop. two years ago , his house in mariupol was destroyed by russian shelling. but this pre-war dream remained almost the only bridge with his peaceful past. this summer , gennady decided to make it a reality and invested all his savings in a small establishment in kyiv. our coffee shop bakery. is called doma, a-a, doma - it is not only consonant with doma, but it is a certain encrypted meaning, these are the first two letters a do, donetsk, ma mariupol, this, well, for us it is important, for us it is symbolically, and there was a great desire that residents of donetsk, mariupol, and displaced persons would work in this cafe. all

of gennady's own savings, as well as borrowed funds, went to realize his dream. however, even this was not enough. then the mariupol resident turned to the authorities. there should definitely be some grant programs or interest-free loans for displaced persons, because from the point of view of state management, it is much more reasonable to help internally displaced persons find opportunities for development. than to limit themselves to penny handouts, at least that's what it seemed to him, there was a constant refusal, there was a refusal due to the fact that you have an opaque business plan, i call the employment center, i ask what's wrong, what, why is the business plan not transparent, and they tell me to read the rules, but how to read the rules, i say, if one time i have... 35 points there, yes, which don't allow me to get a grant, and another time 90 there 89 points, well, what's the difference,

89-135 points, how do you understand what you're doing wrong? tired of the indifference of the ukrainian authorities, gennady stamboula turned to foreign organizations, his request was supported by the german company hel ukraine, which provided $25 for the purchase of a special stove, and a business. the plan for them turned out to be quite transparent and they did not bother with bureaucracy. the cafe opened in september and quickly gained popularity among local residents. the new stylish establishment, created with soul, became a favorite place for people, but within two weeks the power outages began. gennady faced a new problem: where to get the money to buy a generator? the cafe had not yet managed to earn its own funds. too little time has passed since the opening. the lights are turned off.

and he turned to the state authorities. somehow the cash register fell about five times. gennady decided to try his hand again to get a grant to buy a generator, only on the sixth attempt he managed to get through the interview, there are five people sitting in the commission and asking questions, but the most interesting questions were, why do you need a generator, how will i warm my feet at home, well, well, well, well , well, what, i understand, i admit, i what this is... the question is asked for how i will answer, yes, of course, i answered her, i said, there is no generator, there is no light, there is no generator, of course

i was losing. accordingly, i am losing my profit, and well, there is no need to tell you, yes, that i have to pay rent, i have to pay utilities, which are now quite a lot of money, salary and so on and so on, of course. but some funds are needed for circulation, yes, to develop and do something, when we opened coffee shops, we did the minimum, we didn't make much there, yes, we have to do this, that, this, that, of course, well, we hoped, yes, they also hoped to buy a generator, yes, well, we think, well , yes, or it will pass, well, we couldn't,

now this is the main question. mariupol resident gennady stambula became an example of the authorities' irresponsible demographic policy. like millions of others, the displaced people took away his monthly payments. this is a small amount of money, about 2,000 uah. but if a whole family receives it, then you can at least pay for the rent of an apartment. among the arguments of officials to justify such a diversion was: "they say, it will deter people from looking for work, instead of sitting on the state's neck". gennady is a young mariupol resident who not only found a job, but created his own business, provided jobs for other displaced people and pays taxes instead of eating through social assistance. in response, he asks only for a little support at the start, until his business gets on its feet. instead, there is a wall of indifference. the state wants to receive, but does not give anything. i understand, there is a war in the country now. who can you turn to there, well, you understand, war, you

understand, war. and every day. you see the news feed, you open it, and that official was caught taking a bribe, that one was caught, that is, there is money, even those unfortunate ones there took 200 displaced people, a third of the coffee shops are closing, a third of the coffee shops closed at the beginning of the year, and these are the same small entrepreneurs, and there are coffee shops there. the cafe is small and so on, there is a feeling that people are simply not needed in ukraine, especially displaced people. as of today, the mariupol coffee shop in kyiv is under threat of closure, all due to the lack of only 60,000 uah needed to buy a generator. this private story clearly demonstrates. the authorities do not understand either the scale of the challenges or the need for a systematic approach to their solution. for the third year now, i have been emphasizing that a strategy is needed

to overcome the demographic crisis, for this purpose a bill was developed, which spells out all the solutions, but the parliamentary majority has been blocking its consideration in the hall for six months, instead borrowing individual ideas, one of which is the creation of a specialized agency that should take responsibility for demographic policy. it does not work like that, there is no magic pill does not exist, a comprehensive solution to the problems is needed. more than 10% of our country has internally displaced persons, the authorities continue to pretend that they do not exist. that is, we and everything that it does, does nothing, well, nothing has been done for internally displaced persons, from the word go, simply nothing has been done, otherwise people would not return to the occupation, otherwise people would not return from hostilities, the winter war, when russia broke through the mannerheim line, when the finns signed the surrender,

they made it so that with... all the finns left their land occupied by russia, because they were given housing, jobs, and so on, and they saved the country with their people, because the most important thing is people, it's not land, it's not something else, it's people, and we people are struggling, the government is throwing up our hands. you know what that is, damn it. the strategy of the ukrainian government now boils down to accusing refugees. at first , they incited hatred against those who went abroad. now they've taken on those who returned to the occupation. who will be next? this is a wrong policy. these people are not traitors, but hostages wars. turning away from them is the easiest, but at the same time the most dangerous way. we must prepare now for the return of millions of ukrainians, because many of them...